The last three months have been tough on Amber Enterprises India Limited (NSE:AMBER) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 39%. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. In three years the stock price has launched 184% higher: a great result. After a run like that some may not be surprised to see prices moderate. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.
While this past week has detracted from the company’s three-year return, let’s look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
View our latest analysis for Amber Enterprises India
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Amber Enterprises India was able to grow its EPS at 2.9% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 42% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That’s not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth. This favorable sentiment is reflected in its (fairly optimistic) P/E ratio of 70.03.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Amber Enterprises India’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
The last twelve months weren’t great for Amber Enterprises India shares, which cost holders 24%, while the market was up about 8.9%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Investors are up over three years, booking 42% per year, much better than the more recent returns. Sometimes when a good quality long term winner has a weak period, it’s turns out to be an opportunity, but you really need to be sure that the quality is there. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with Amber Enterprises India .
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.