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E-commerce Took a Step Back in 2021, Says JPMorgan By

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By Sam Boughedda

In the latest note focusing on Amazon (NASDAQ:) vs. the retail industry, JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers said as “Team Retail” expected, unadjusted online penetration took a step back in 2021 following well-above trend expansion during the pandemic.

Horvers said in a note to investors that US e-commerce gains moderated in 2021, but they “continue to project re-acceleration in 2H22 on more favorable comps & as AMZN & other retailers gain share in underpenetrated categories.”

“We project e-commerce will reach 30%+ adjusted penetration in 2026 (~200 bps of expansion per year) and 40%+ over time,” wrote Horvers. “E-commerce sales grew 15% in 2021, in-line with its typical pre-COVID mid-teens trend, but this was down from the 20%+ COVID acceleration in 2020 and it under-grew total retail sales by more than 300 bps (vs. its usual 10-12-pt outperformance).”

As a result, JPMorgan now expects e-commerce will continue to outpace retail sales, but by a more narrow margin, expecting “online share to expand

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