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Nancy Pelosi’s looming Taiwan trip is a high-risk, high-reward gambit that could cement her legacy and rile China

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If US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushes ahead with a visit to Taipei this week, it will create the greatest test of Chinese and American resolve over Taiwan in more than three decades, putting immense pressure on the world’s two most powerful men. 

Pelosi, who is second in the line of succession to the presidency, is on a tour through Asia, with Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan on the itinerary. 

While she’s made no public mention of Taiwan, a quick stopover is widely expected to happen. 

Arguably the most influential woman in US politics, Pelosi is organising the trip to presumably meet her host, the most powerful woman in the Chinese-speaking world, Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen.

From the perspective of Taiwan’s government, the trip is a much-needed show of support from Washington in the face of increasing Chinese diplomatic and military pressure on the self-ruled island. 

But it’s inadvertently revealed the divisions at the top of America’s government over the handling of China’s most sensitive issue.

US President Joe Biden, who is Pelosi’s commander-in-chief and party leader, is not even willing to publicly back his Democratic colleague’s visit. 

Nancy Pelosi in a statement black and red necklace and a bright blue suit with a slight smile on her face
Nancy Pelosi has not confirmed whether she will visit Taiwan. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Service via Reuters)

So with the US President largely left on the sidelines, it’s the legacy building by both Pelosi and Chinese President Xi Jinping that has brought things to a head. 

While Pelosi’s time at the top is running out, Xi is hoping this year is the beginning of a second decade at the helm. 

‘It’s her last chance’

At 82, Pelosi’s potential visit is being seen as a move to cap a career focused on human rights, which commenced with her unfurling a banner in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square 31 years ago. 

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For decades she’s been a constant critic of the Chinese government and has often aligned with the more hawkish voices in the US on Taiwan. 

“She wants to do this now because it’s her last chance,” David Smith, from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, told the ABC. 

“It’s highly likely the Republicans will win midterm elections this year, they’ll take back control of the House, and at 82, this is likely the end of her tenure as Speaker of the House of Representatives.” 

Dr Smith noted that the White House could not control her overseas trips but might be pressuring her not to go. 

Joe Biden with a slight smile on his face watches Nancy Pelosi gesticulate
Joe Biden’s White House has reportedly warned Nancy Pelosi that her potential trip to Taiwan risks worsening tensions between the US and China. (Reuters: Jonathan Ernst)

“If she doesn’t end up going to Taiwan, I expect there will be a huge discourse about how the Biden administration is backing down and being humiliated,” he said. 

Taiwanese leader making bold moves 

While Taiwan’s government has been low key in its public comments about the possible visit, President Tsai Ing-wen has been the other driving force behind the trip. 

She’s been highly diplomatically active this year, hosting delegations of US senators, congress members and senior retired officials.

Just last week, she met two former Australian defence ministers, Christopher Pyne and Kevin Andrews, and hosted former prime minister Tony Abbott last year. 

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Tsai is often mocked and detested in Chinese government media as a “separatist” — despite having no plans to declare formal independence.

And so the sight of her and Pelosi together would infuriate Chinese nationalists and create demands for a strong response. 

“It would be a show of support for Taiwan,” Sow Keat Tok, of the University of Melbourne’s Asia Institute, said. 

“It would definitely be a big punch in the face for Beijing, and anything of that sort would constitute a victory for Tsai Ing-wen.

“Compared to 25 years ago when the last house speaker visited, Xi has crafted a message that China has already risen, so a visit would be a much bigger affront now than in the 1990s. 

“Especially as he portrays himself as the great protector of the Chinese nation.” 

Had Pelosi visited in April as originally planned, it’s doubtful the trip would have caused as much of a stir. 

Tsai Ing-Wen, in a black blazer, stands with microphones in front of red and blue Taiwanese flags
Tsai Ing-wen is said to be the other driving force behind Ms Pelosi’s potential visit.(Reuters: Annabelle Chih)

China’s government strongly condemned it, but heated talk of intercepting or even shooting down her plane was absent. 

A positive COVID-19 test ended up scuttling her visit then. 

But the advanced leaking of plans for a rescheduled trip — including by some Biden administration figures opposed to the visit — presented a golden opportunity for Xi to prod US divisions.

And on the home front, China’s leader can’t afford to look weak. 

Xi’s tricky path ahead 

China’s economy is struggling and he’s facing some discontent over an endless and restrictive COVID-zero policy.

Xi Jinping in a black coat
 Xi Jinping recently warned Joe Biden not to “play with fire” over Taiwan.(Reuters: Darrin Zammit Lupi)

But he’s also in a political struggle behind closed doors. 

Having spent his decade in power fanning Chinese nationalism and boosting the country’s rapidly growing military might, Xi is a few months away from likely cementing a third term in power. 

While he’s astute at keeping a cap on public dissent, it’s unlikely his precedent-breaking bid to stay in power hasn’t caused some pushback within the Communist Party — and possibly the military. 

The potential sight of two women that his propaganda agencies have long targeted for heavy criticism meeting together in Taipei highlights how little progress Xi has made in further isolating the island. 

For all the war talk he has fanned— “Prepare for war! Towards war! We are ready at any moment” screamed one headline this week — and for all the military drills he has ordered, such as four live-fire exercises this week, Xi has still come up short.

A man in a baseball cap, photographed from behind, holds a magnifying glass to a newspaper featuring Nancy Pelosi
While Nancy Pelosi has confirmed a tour through Asia, her announcement of the trip left Taiwan off the list. (AP: Andy Wong)

He has failed to dissuade key foreign governments to widen their diplomatic distance from Taipei. 

His earlier success in poaching small diplomatic allies from Taiwan would be offset by a senior American congressional delegation that still doesn’t fear the sabre rattling or warnings to stay away. 

“China is losing the diplomatic game and the PR game and they are definitely losing their bid for the hearts and minds of people in Taiwan,” Dr Tok said. 

“So while I think they’re really losing the game for a peaceful takeover, militarily, China is slowly getting the upper hand.

“And that will definitely raise the risk of conflict.” 

Some experts believe China’s tough talk and military drills in response to the trip could result in the most severe crisis since the US sailed multiple carrier battle groups into the Taiwan Strait in 1996 to deter Chinese missile tests. 

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But while Xi beats the drums of war with military drills and heated language in state media, most analysts think he has no desire for a conflict or confrontation now. 

But Dr Sow Keat Tok isn’t so sure. 

“It’s very easy to dismiss it as sabre rattling, but it may not be sabre rattling when it comes to the crunch, and nobody really knows when that crunch is,” he said. 

“Common sense is we tend to be dismissive of it, that we think China is playing the bluff, but I think it’s time we start taking China’s words seriously.” 

Nancy Pelosi's profile in silhouette behind a screen featuring the US Capitol dome and a US flag
Nancy Pelosi has a long history of criticising China’s government. (Reuters: Elizabeth Frantz)

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