Russia’s seaborne flows of crude oil climb to new high

Russian crude oil flows to international markets continue to rise, even as the country insists it is slashing production.

Four-week average seaborne shipments, which smooth out some of the volatility in weekly numbers, rose again in the period to May 12, as they have in four of the past five weeks. Flows are now up by 10% since the first week of April and hit a new high for the period since Bloomberg began tracking them in detail at the start of 2022. With almost all Russia’s crude going to China and India, volumes to Asia also reached a new peak.

Russia’s Energy Ministry said that the nation’s oil-output cuts retaliation for Western sanctions almost reached the targeted level in April, having previously said they exceeded the target in March. First Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin pointed to lower pipeline flows to Europe and reduced refinery runs.

But Russian data show that pipeline flows fell sharply before the cuts came into effect and were almost unchanged between February and March. Refinery runs dropped by 1.4% between March and April and fell further in the first 10 days of May, as some plants underwent normal seasonal maintenance.

Processing rates have fallen by 300,000 barrels a day since March, but remain 430,000 barrels a day above the levels seen in April and May last year.