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Trisul’s (BVMF:TRIS3) earnings have declined over three years, contributing to shareholders 74% loss


Trisul S.A. (BVMF:TRIS3) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 76%. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.

While the last three years has been tough for Trisul shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let’s look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they’ve been the driver of the negative returns.

See our latest analysis for Trisul

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Trisul saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 26% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 38% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

BOVESPA:TRIS3 Earnings Per Share Growth January 26th 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Trisul, it has a TSR of -74% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 2.8% in the twelve months, Trisul shareholders did even worse, losing 34% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 11% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Trisul better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for Trisul that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on BR exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Trisul is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.



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