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Ambuja Cement Ltd.’s Q4 CY21 (standalone) Ebitda came 15% below our and 20% below consensus estimate. Weak number is led by lower Ebitda/tonne at Rs 811 versus Rs 1100 plus in QoQ and YoY. Higher fuel cost at Rs 1609/tonne has impacted Ebitda/tonne.
Ambuja Cement has announced capacity expansion in East region of India. We understand the capacity announcement has come at the time when region has fared badly in December quarter.
This has made investor worried on future profitability. But given the capacity will be commissioned CY25, demand is expected to pick up which could augur well for Ambuja Cement.
Post the result we have maintained our estimate for CY22-23 as industry has taken price hike in January 2022/February 2022 and cement demand is picking up.
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