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Johnson has been in no rush to publicly announce his decision, often saying that Senate campaigns are far too long and pointing out that he waited until May 2010 to announce his first bid for an election later that fall. And in interviews this week, Johnson refused to tip his hand about which way he was leaning.
“I’m not ready to say anything,” Johnson told CNN. Asked if he is planning on making his announcement next week, the senator replied, “I do all kinds of events.”
But in private conversations, Republicans are coming away with the distinct impression that Johnson will run again, according to multiple GOP sources, and would be surprised if he did not. Some Republicans have grown impatient of waiting, as potential candidates decline to make a decision about their political futures until he makes his.
When asked if he wants Johnson to run this fall, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “Of course I do.”
“I fully expect to see Sen. Johnson run for reelection,” said Andrew Hitt, a former Wisconsin Republican party chairman. “He’s continued to travel the state. He’s been very active. All signs really point to him getting in the race very soon.”
South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the No. 2 Republican in the chamber, is also expected to make a major decision about whether he’ll run again in the coming days. But unlike Thune, who serves a reliably red state, Johnson knows that his choice will alter the race for one of the Democratic Party’s few pick-up opportunities in 2022.
Officials in both parties have said they want Johnson, the only Wisconsin Republican holding statewide office, to mount a reelection bid.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said of Johnson that “I’ve always believed he’s going to run.” And he made clear he’d like that announcement to come soon.
“Everybody that’s going to run, I’d like them to announce,” Scott said. “In this job, I’d rather get people to announce.”
The US Senate race in Wisconsin will be one of the most hotly contested of the year, no matter if Johnson runs or not.
Johnson is the only senator to campaign in 2022 in a state carried by the opposite party’s 2020 presidential candidate. Biden beat Trump by less than one percentage point — about 21,000 votes — in Wisconsin.
“The misinformation and disinformation that he continues to espouse is dangerous,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat from Wisconsin, told CNN. “And so I do think that has an impact on the race.”
Hitt acknowledged that Johnson faced “headwinds” but expected that he would overcome them to beat whoever emerges from the Democratic primary.
“When Sen. Johnson turns on the campaign and sets his mind to it, and goes out there, day in and day out, explaining to Wisconsinites what he has done, what he believes and what he’s going to do for them, he is a force to be reckoned with,” Hitt said. “I fully expect that he will continue to be our senator.”
In 2016, conservative groups left Johnson for dead, doubting that he could beat former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Johnson, a former Oshkosh plastics manufacturing company owner, won by three points.
“Sen. Johnson has proven to be one of the most effective campaigners in Wisconsin history — winning when most people thought he didn’t have a chance,” said veteran Wisconsin GOP strategist Mark Graul.
But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden’s low approval ratings.
In 2019, the Democratic-controlled House impeached Trump for pressuring Ukraine to announce politically damaging investigations of Biden and his son Hunter, while using military aid and a White House meeting coveted by Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as leverage.
Johnson has condemned the violence and acknowledged that other weapons besides firearms were used by the rioters.
But in an interview last year with CNN, Johnson aligned himself with Trump, questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
“I think there are some real issues that have not been answered and I think these are legitimate concerns about the election,” Johnson said. “I’m not afraid of the truth, OK?”
If Johnson ultimately decides not to run, Republicans would scramble to campaign for the seat. One potential candidate is Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher, although he declined to address the speculation in a brief interview.
“I’m only thinking about my current term in Congress and defeating the Chinese Communist Party,” Gallagher said. “That’s what consumes my every waking moment.”
CNN’s Ted Barrett and Morgan Rimmer contributed to this report.
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